JeremyNYR

iTrader: (2)

I'm curious to know if there is any way to estimate how many 3rd gens are left in existance today. There must be some way to get a reasonable estimate. Has anyone considered this or seen any similar data for other generation f-bodies or other models?

Maybe there are some actuaries or statistic oriented members here that could help put together a model or formula to get a reasonable guess at it?

lethaldomestics

All I can tell you is that Ive been seeing them in junkyards more than usual all versions of the car. My estimate in ten years whats left of them will be worth serious cash.

jhp73

would be interesting especially along ones with,5.7's or 5.0. tops or not,auto vs manual ect. Could take original production numbers and subtract average attrition rates maybe. Need to do it from 1982-1992 maybe

jhp73

Holy google Batman check this page out !!
http://www.fbodymotorsports.com/82_9...ction_numbers1
In the year 2001, the National Automobile Dealers Association conducted a study revealing the average age of vehicles in operation in the US. The study found that of vehicles in operation in the US, 38.3% were older than ten years

ZZ3 Z28

Okay so there were 1,528,561 3rd gen Camaros built. If half are now toasters and tomato soup cans, that still leaves 764,280 and a 1/2 left. That is still a lot of cars in the deep end of the pool.

What I never realized was how few 1990 and 1992 Camaros were built, 34,986 and 70,007, respectively. I can see why the 1992 numbers were so low with a new body style in the works, but maybe some one can remind why so few 1990's.

Drew

iTrader: (58)

Because production switched to the 1991 model year by May 1990.

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

Interesting question, and I've often pondered it. Average lifespan of an automobile in the U.S. is about 13 years. Since all the 3rd Gens are well past this, we can be assured that substantially less than half are still around.

As to exactly how many, who knows? With enough work, I'm sure you could discover how many 1985, 1986, 1987 and so on cars are still registered in the U.S. and figure out what % that is from the respective model year's production. But that wouldn't account for the survivors that aren't registered and just sitting in garages and yards. And some cars, like a Camaro, are much more likely to have been preserved in some form or other than, say, an Escort or Cavalier. And of Camaros, I'm sure that more IROCs and Z28s were saved than base Camaros.

Anyone want a summer project and report the results? LOL!

cerberus

WOW nice site!

camarosrock1989

iTrader: (1)

I have a friend that works at my city's MVD. I can maybe get how many 3rd gen in AZ. You guys work your states and I will see what I can do. Lets see what we can come up with!

JeremyNYR

iTrader: (2)

I think just finding out how many are registered is a good start. I'd want to take that snapshot in the summer though for the northern states since many people turn in their plates and technically aren't registered during the winter (at least in New York that is common practice).

Jason E

Official industry stats show the average age of a vehicle in the US is 10.5 years...so an '01 is now the average aged car.

Considering third gens' NEWEST offering is 9 years older than that, and that production was MUCH higher before '87, and I'd guess about 10-15% exist, if that. In the Northeast, there's no such thing as a DD third gen anymore...all that suffered that fate have rusted away, for the most part.

While these cars appear plentiful ONLINE, consider that in much of the country, actually seeing one of these going down the road is not a common occurance...

NCGuy68

This is whats going to throw any estimates out of wack along with any that may be sitting in barns. Some Heavy Hitters in the 1stgen crowd have been asking this same question for a long time and can never come up with a number that everyone agrees with.

scottmoyer

You're chasing a brick wall. You will not be able to locate that unless you have the VIN numbers of the cars. Nobody wants to run tens of thousands of VINs so we can see how many are left. Also, the number you get will not be accurate because of the number of cars still on MSO that have never been registered, or have allowed the registration to lapse. If you checked me last year, my car would not have shown up.

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

For you-know-whats and grins, those with time should issue FOIA requests (Freedom of Information Act) to their state's DMV asking how many Camaros from 1982 to 1992 are presently registered in their state. I don't know if you'll get an answer, as most state's FOIA requests technically only require the production of existing documents versus compiling data, but it's worth a shot.

Even if we get just one state, we could calculate a working percentage based on that state's percentage of the national vehicle fleet. For example:

1. State A has 2.5 million vehicles registered and there are 50 million vehicles registered in the U.S., so State A is 5% of the Nation's vehicle fleet.

2. 1.5 million 3rd Gens were built, so, approximately, 75,000 of them were in State A.

3. If 5,000 are still registered in State A, then the approximate survival rate is 7%.

Easy enough. This won't be perfect and will have flaws (e.g. CA will have more survivors than IL) but it will give a rough ballpark. I don't know how much more accurate you could get than that.

scottmoyer

Not really that easy when in just speculation, you screwed up. Five million vehicles out of 50 million is not 5%, but 10%. Your calculations are now all messed up because of that one incorrect starting point!

jhp73

I DD mine but even so I rarely see one in as good as condition as mine. I had a guy honk and pull me over yesterday because he just wanted to see my car. He said it had been awhile since he had seen a true iroc in such good condition.

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

Math definitely isn't my strong suit, haha, but I quickly changed my post to say that 2.5 million out of 50 is 5%, which is correct.

In any case, that would be the best way to calculate it, IMHO.

Ideally, we'd get a number of states, or at least enough to see the survivor % difference between a cold, salt using state like Wisconsin and a warm state that doesn't have winter like Arizona.

NCGuy68

I think you answered your own question in your last sentence. There is no existing documents that show this data. State DMVs only go by VIN and plate number - they could care less what type of car it is.

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

If that's true, we'd be limited to the % of 1982-92 model year cars as a whole still on the roads, which would be much less accurate. I thought registration listed the make And model? I could be wrong, and it may depend on the state. My registration cards from my state have the model of my cars listed on them.

jhp73

You're chasing a brick wall. You will not be able to locate that unless you have the VIN numbers of the cars. Nobody wants to run tens of thousands of VINs so we can see how many are left. Also, the number you get will not be accurate because of the number of cars still on MSO that have never been registered, or have allowed the registration to lapse. If you checked me last year, my car would not have shown up.
Brick walls can be knocked down!! Let's do this

cerberus

LexisNexis can provide that information to you for a very hefty sum. They are tied in to every US DMV and can search in everyway possible with in seconds.

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

I nominate jhp73 to head this noble project! Also, while anyone's at it, I've always wondered, a bit morbidly probably, how many were involved in fatal accidents. See if you can dig that up too (no pun intended).

jhp73

You got any contact info or should I just google LexisNexis ??

jhp73

Here's something kind of interesting http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/library...states/dmv.htm if we could get a couple of people from each state doing some research when they get time then collect all the data and come up with a data sheet. I'll help try and do California so any body with cal Camaro stats send them my way.
http://dmv.ca.gov/about/profile/ca_dmv_stats.pdf

cerberus

Google, we use them at our law firm for lawsuit research. God help you because they are expensive.
Hell the FBI uses them for Background searches. They are that good.

JeremyNYR

iTrader: (2)

When you say average age, do you mean the average age of a car that's registered currently, or the average service life of a car?

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

Per this Wiki article, the median age of a vehicle in operation in the U.S. 2007 was 9.4 years, meaning half of the cars on the road are newer than that and half are older than that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passeng..._United_States

According to a 2001 study, 38.3% were older than ten years, 22.3% were between seven and ten years old, 25.8% were between three and six years old and 13.5% were less than two years old. According to the study the majority of vehicles, 60.6%, of vehicles were older than seven years in 2001.

These numbers are neat but probably irrelevant for purposes of our discussion since the newest 3rd Gen is 20 years old, and the average service life of a vehicle is about 13 years, as I cited earlier. So the 3rd Gens are well beyond the realm of the regular vehicle fleet.

jpearcy1

iTrader: (1)

How about someone on this site start a thread and everyone list there road legal drive able Camaro and year. Then someone could take the data and create a rough % and/or chart showing a guess of what is actually out on the road??

Slater126

iTrader: (1)

That'll just give a survival rate of 100%, since, presumably, those with road legal and driveable Camaros are still in existence.

jpearcy1

iTrader: (1)

Yes but it will show the amount of Iroc's, Z28, Convertibles, etc... We all know that the numbers are not a 100% accurate but like I said its a rough guess. Plus it be nice to know how many member cars are actually on this site.

JeremyNYR

iTrader: (2)

sorry jpearcy, but taking a poll of people on this site isn't gonna do much of anything other than give an incredibly conservative lower limit. While this site is very popular and has a huge membership, it doesn't encompass the entire ownership of 3rd gen Camaros AND FIREBIRDS! Don't forget the Firebirds!

okfoz

1) Starting a list is futile... its interesting, but most owners do not care.
2) There was some 1.5 Million made,
3) I suspect less than half survive... Last year I think I only saw less than 30 all year, and that includes the 7 that I own.

John

Jason E

Yes...that is the latest 2010 data from NADA.

okfoz

The UP side to having less third gens on the road is there is a supply and demand issue. The less cars the more the existing ones should be worth.

The DOWN side to having less third gens is less of them in junkyards.. Therefore OE parts are becoming scarce...

Ultimately BOTH are a benefit for those cars that are in original or good condition to appreciate.

John

my82roc

iTrader: (101)

I have noticed that over the past couple of years that the supply of thirdgens in some of the smaller junkyards I go to has declined drastically.Where they used to have bunches of them has now turned into a hit or miss thing and when they show up they are stripped right away.The larger yards are a different story and still seem to have a fair amount

Dusk2600

Remember the cash 4 clunkers aided a bunch of deaths to the F bodys

NCGuy68

Good point, but I don't think many 3rdgen F-Body cars got turned in. That federal program was aimed more at the 12-15 year old cars with owners ready to trade in anyway.

AmorgetRS

iTrader: (6)

https://www.thirdgen.org/forums/hist...c-fallout.html

Here are links to exact numbers for the c4c program. Its not that many.

puma1552

iTrader: (1)

There was also a UAW strike in 1990. 1990 was the year that saw the lowest Camaro production in history.

IROC#1

Actually, I believe there were 1.5 million CAMAROS made and 1 million Firebirds so about 2.5 million total! I would think 50% survival rate would be very optimistic considering 3rd gens are 20-30 years old now, accidents, rust, abuse/neglect etc have dwindled the numbers somewhat. 33% is probably more accurate which would still put us around 800,000 survivors..

In a typical month here in Seattle I might see 2 or 3 on the road so they are definitely becoming scarce.

Brock Lee

Many of the Auto Zoned, rattle can paint job third generation F bodies I was seeing 2-3 years ago have been wrecked/junked.

As previously stated, DMV records will not be accurate as there are numerous not currently registered.

I would also be shocked if 50% survived, at least of the Firebirds. I remember the 1982-4 models being junked on a mass scale by the late 80's. Once the transmissions went out, it was usually a death sentence.

AmorgetRS

iTrader: (6)

A 1990 Strike wouldn't effect the 1990 F-body model year production because the last 1990 F-body was produced in Dec of 89.

NMCarGuy

I looking at a 1990 IROC that needs a lot of work but it has a 5 speed. Does anyone know how many 5 speed IROCs were built?

IROC#1

That's incorrect. The last iroc was produced December of 1989. 1990 production would've continued into July.

AmorgetRS

iTrader: (6)

No, it didn't. Production of the 1990 model ceased in Dec of 89. The 1991 model year was introduced early.

https://www.thirdgen.org/1990-chevy-camaro

kmcn47

i try not to drive mine everyday, but i usualy have to, LONG story

bitchin_buick

ALOT! This thread sounds familiar......