FelixKrull

According to the production numbers posted on this site there were approximately 300k 3rd generation Trans Ams (of all varieties, excluding firebirds and formulas) produced over the 11 year production run. I am curious as to the majority opinion's take on how many of these wonderful cars are left.

I did a quick search on Autotrader and there are currently only 77 Trans Ams (again not formulas or firebirds) for sale across the country. You have to figure that at this point most Trans Ams, at least those still in good condition, are happily owned by someone who knows what they have and has no intention of parting with their car anytime soon.

Nevertheless, I live in north central Florida--which is pretty rural but has its share of classic cars--and I've only seen two 3rd generation Trans Ams on the road in the last 6 months. With the last 3G T/A rolling off the line 18 years ago, I have to imagine that at least 75% of them are in the boneyard by now.

My logic for that estimate is as follows: Out of every 4 cars I think 1 of them was bought by an enthusiast who over the years kept the car near like new condition and if they had to get rid of it was careful in who they sold it to--someone who was probably a like-minded enthusiast and has maintained the car over the years (these are the cars that still survive today). The 2nd of the 4 cars was bought by a young single person who eventually grew out of it, traded it in to a dealer, the car has since changed hands many times being abused along the way and it eventually wore out and was retired. The 3rd car found its way into the hands of a teenager who didn't know how to handle it and wrecked it (my story) or abused it to the point of early retirement. The 4th car became acquired by a hot-rodder who modified it over and over again and literally cycled through the car to the point that it has no stock components left and has become a Frankencar that wound up on blocks in someone's backyard until they eventually sold it off for scrap.

That's admittedly a very back of the napkin analysis but its my take on the living population of these cars. I'd be very interested to hear of other people's opinions, who are probably much more well-informed than I.

whitedevilTA

iTrader: (8)

300k originally? Never knew that. Guess that makes me feel better about owning one, lol. As far as how many left, I couldn't even begin to guess. I'd say around 100k or less. Interesting topic...I'd be curious to see.

FelixKrull

I think at best, we probably have about 70k left but that is total guesswork on my part. I'm just assuming that 3 out of every 4 cars they made is now in the scrapyard somewhere. Like I said, I've only seen 2 examples on the road in the last 6 months and I drive about 2,000 miles a month.

When I did a similar search on Autotrader for '82-'92 Corvettes for sale I came up with over 1,000 results, that's compared with 77 T/As built over the same period for sale. That tells me that 3rd generation Trans Ams are definitely an endangered species.

jordanandrewkay

mine was owned by a couple who bought it new...did not drive it much (did not really take good care of it) and was sold due to divorce to a shop, then sold to me. i have seen only ONE actual trans am here in h town at pick a part and it was down to the BARE METAL lol. i wish everyone who had a trans am was on this site and we could get a head count .......i wonder if there is a way to figure out how many trans ams are registered in each state. but keep in mind that would not tell us about non registered 'purpose built' cars, or cars like mine that need registration lol.

just a thought

bdennis1983

iTrader: (1)

well if it helps at all i got an 86 T/A that i saved from a teenager. has the TPI 305, WS6 edition with 4 wheel disc brakes and such. has all options but leather and power seat. I was amazed that it still had factory louvers with it still. I am currently fixing everything it needs though.

okfoz

There is no way to know... Unless you have a low production where you can go one by one to see where it is and get the condition from the owner then you are only throwing darts at a spinning globe trying to hit Hawaii.

Even on top of that you are relying on the idea that the information is reliable... I know of junkyard cars that still have a clean title... More or less the cars were not reported as salvage. So that leaves doubt even with reliable sources like "CarFax" or AutoCheck.

John

FelixKrull

Well, I agree we don't have a way of getting an exact count but I think we can make some logical assumptions and come up with a ballpark estimate much the same way scientists are able to estimate the population of endangered species---by using the available data to come up with a reasonable hypothesis.

As I indicated there are currently only 77 3G T/As listed across the country for sale on Autotrader (which is one of the most favored ways of advertising cars for sale). There are only about a dozen posted on ebay. A search of the 4 major markets here in Florida on Craigslist came up with only 26 for sale in Jax, Orlando, Tampa Bay, and South Florida. You figure roughly a grand total of 30 for sale in Florida, the 4th most populated state.

Craigslist reports there are 8 for sale in Los Angeles, the 2nd most populated city in the country. There are 9 in New York, the largest city. So between all of Florida and the nation's two largest cities we have roughly 50 3G Trans Ams for sale. Thus, for a rough estimate we'll say that there are approximately 300 3G Trans Ams for sale across the nation right now through private owners and dealers.

That's only one-tenth of one percent of the total number of cars built. Let's say that there are 30,000 3G Trans Ams left, then that would mean that only 1 percent of T/A owners are attempting to sell their cars. Now logic would seem to suggest that that number is far too low, especially with the economy what it is. Are 99% of Trans Am owners enthusiasts and/or collectors?

If we attempt an analysis in this way, I think we can get a ballpark estimate of the number of cars remaining. We're starting to get to the point where even average condition cars are commanding 6k to 8k. The market for a really well kept 3G Trans Am is telling us that they are becoming quite rare. After doing this additional research I'd lower my previous estimate quite a bit and say that there are probably only between 10k to 15k left in the U.S.

BigBadGTA

I agree totally with the numbers that are being said. The thirdgen T/A is becoming a very rare car indeed. I can count on one hand the number of T/As I have seen in person during the last 2 years.. I have seen a total of 2 GTAs on the street in vegas in the last year and a half. One flame red 87-90 which was clean but needed alot of TLC... Then a green 91-92 GTA that looked to be in mint condition, but I have never gotten a close up view of. I have seen that one twice so far. My dad told me that even back when these cars were new it was rare to see a GTA. I have seen a bunch of IROCs and base camaros here. I also agree with the teenagers destroying them too for the most part. Just keep in mind that ALL teenagers are not inconsiderate *******s, who don't take care of their cars. There are a few of us out there that love our cars and take care of them better than the older folks do.

collin2201

If I had to guess...I say a 100,000. Sounds about right with how little of them you see on the road. I rarely ever see thirdgens in general. I think I've only ever seen one other thirdgen Firebird and it wasn't even a T/A.
I feel like I have the only Trans Am in the city of Killeen.

FelixKrull

You're right BBG, there are some righteous teens who value their cars more so than us grown folks, with it being your first real taste of freedom its easy to see why. I just wish I had been experienced enough to know how to drive mine. When I was 16, I had a gorgeous black/gold '86 T/A, fully loaded, that I totaled when I let the rear end slide out from under me on a slick road.

I just checked Craigslist for Vegas and there's been 9 3rdGen T/As for sale there since late August. So I guess that means there's probably only two to three dozen in the whole city. No wonder you've only seen a couple of them.

FelixKrull

I think that might be on the high side. If there were that many still left I think you'd see more of them for sale. I think at most there's only 50,000. That would mean that 1 out of every 6 cars built is still alive.

Rauch

Add another Trans Am to that list. I've never seen one throughout Jersey, but Third Gen Camaro's and IROC's are everywhere

Just got a hold of my first domestic car and proud to say it's an '87 Trans AM GTA (Thanks to the PHS!). Very minimal rust. Just a dime sized spot underneath and that's it. The cheap Maaco job did at least something well while the previous owner had it.

Sad to say, the engine doesn't match (Rebuilt '88 Vette engine), and the tranny is brand new.

Other than the few issues and defects with the car, it is VERY eye catching. From about 10 feet away, you can't tell it's a Maaco job until you get closer. That and the Door lock patches it has :|. But hey, got a $750 estimate from the body shop to repair the doors and the minor frame damage underneath as well as the lift rails. Is it really that common to see the lift points bent inward? Every third gen I've seen has messed up jack point rails.

FelixKrull

The reason why a couple of you have noted the relative ubiquity of 3rd Gen Camaros is because there were over 620,000 Z28s and IROCs built. That number jumps to 750,000 if you include RSs.

So quite literally there were more than twice as many Z28s and IROCs built as Trans Ams. That's why you see so many more compared with Trans Ams.

irock88

Did a quick check for TA`s around Toronto ...Auto trader... 11 for sale and Kijiji within 600 mile of Toronto... 94 3rd gens for sale.
You would be close to assume 100,000 are still around

FelixKrull

Yes, but many of those results include Firebirds and Formulas. You need to go through the results and pick out the Trans Ams. I did a search of any distance from my zip code and came back with 133 3rd Gen Firebirds for sale but out of those only 77 are Trans Ams. The number has to be much lower than 100,000.

irock88

I did check for TA`S only and did a count on them there were well over 200 combined

88gta6spdvert

myself I have 9 gtas 1 ta most from 87 up were gtas thats my guess really Tas are rare from 87 up bythe way look at my 88 gta blk/blk/blk-grey 5 speed digital dash about 23,000 in resto from 2 prevoius owners I have all performance parts to take this one all the way cgeck out my pics before the previous owner had painted will get new pics soon

85TAracer

iTrader: (5)

I won't throw a number out, but for wild guesses I think where you guys are at is a reasonable estimate. I am a bit different than you guys for TA sightings. I would say there are a lot of TA in my area.. (Western New York), but this area is more than just one city. I do agree that I see more Camaros than TA's hands down... I have noticed in the last 5 years that the number of 3rd gens on the road, and/or being daily driven has decreased substantially.

Here's my Rust Belt reasoning: Now-a-days, "kids" buy a cheap import, or car from the mid to late 90's OR a V6 4th gen as their first car. Our 3rd gens are just too old for these new drivers. Plus, with the pussification of America, parents don't want their kids driving an old, worn out car with a V8. They dont want their kid to learn how to fix their car, or maintain it, dont get hurt!, just take it to the shop!

In this area 3rd gens that were daily driven are usually in the late stages of rust cancer. So, I see a lot of cars in the bone yards becuase of rust, not damage.

Sorry for a bit of rant in the middle, but the truth can hurt. To the youngs guys/girls on the board, I'm glad your parents let you get a 3rd gen, set a good example.

I myself have owned my 85 TA since I was 17, its undergoing a complete resto with drivetrain improvements, I am now 24. ( some here would think I'm still a kid! lol)

FelixKrull

200 combined from what? A search on AutoTrader for all of the United States lists only 77. Now, that's not as many as what is on Craigslist. I don't have the time to search every city on Craigslist but I did search the four largest U.S. cities and the four largest markets in Florida and based on those results, I can estimate that there are about 300 for sale in the U.S. Also, its important to make sure when you're checking multiple sources that you're not counting cars twice.

Aaron91RS

iTrader: (2)

Don't worry just like the 69 camaro's someday there will be more TA's in existence then were actually produced.

One 1991 TA WS6 vert here.

Jeffs82TA

iTrader: (1)

They are all still around, most of them are in just another form is all. Like a beer can, melted down and turned into a honda fender etc. etc.

Drew

iTrader: (58)

This thread is ridiculous. You can't even begin to accurately estimate how many are out there.

jordanandrewkay

haha i feel ya dude...there is alot of older guys on here that have owned these cars when they were new.....i still kind of get offended when people talk crap about teens lol.....im 21.

jordanandrewkay

well one thing is for sure. there are less than 300k. n thats an accurate estimate.....just pokin fun.

Jason E

I totally agree with Drew, but I'd say about 90% are gone. I see one around on a regular basis, and I own one. If there are 27,000 left nationwide, I'd be shocked...truly shocked.

When the newest one is 18 years old, and the AVERAGE CAR ON THE ROAD is 8 years old...well, you do the math! I own 3 third gens, but my best friend has parted 3 in the last 5 years. How many more are like him than like me????

FelixKrull

I respectfully disagree. I think gauging the existing population by the number for sale is a way of coming up with a ballpark estimate. I'd be interested to know what your opinion, or to put it another way, your guess is as to how many are still on the road.

Drew

iTrader: (58)

I think there are a butt-load (highly scientific, highly calibrated measurement) of them in back yards, barns, under car ports, in garages under piles of stuff, and so on... The owners of which will "restore it... someday" or are saving it for their kid, or until it's worth a million dollars.

Thirdgens don't make good everyday cars. It makes logical sense there are more parked then being driven, or traded at any given time. A good example is how when Papa Johns had their free pizza give away day for Camaro owners. I saw more NICE thirdgen Camaro's in their parking lot while I was waiting for my pizza then I've ever seen on the streets in town. The ones you see are the junk that are just being used as transportation. The truly nice cars seldom come out and the owners aren't trying to part with them.

Threads like this can't arrive at a real number. All they do is give everyone a place to about the topic. They're pointless threads that just push real topics down the page and off the front page.

Diggler86

During the last 8 yrs I have definately noticed a reduction.

Very few on the road (among millions of cars in socal). Do still see some camaros.

Less and less at the junkyard. 8 yrs ago there would be a dozen at any time. Now there is maybe 2.

On ebay, you will see either a complete dog or a mint GTA or Turbo TA in the double digits. There is not much inbetween decent condition standard sales.

Cash for clunkers encouraged many people to euthanize there old cars - which will never be back on the road in anyone else's hands. Although in a twist of irony I dont even think my TA would have qualified, "too old" to be a clunker.

Stricter smog laws this year actually decreased our CA max allowable limits by 20%, more encouragement to dump the older cars.

L695speed

Oh they are around, I've seen more than my fair share throughout NJ. From pristine stockers, to modded show cars to junkers. You don't see them everyday but they are around. I'm restoring mine so its in the garage, a friend of mine restomodded his. Drew is right, they are not everyday cars anymore, you'd see em out when they are at cruise nights, shows etc.

Jason E

I mildly disagree that they don't make decent daily drivers. I DD one for 4 years, and if I didn't have a demo, I would have no issue DDing my RS right now during good weather months. On a 700 mile round trip to ME and back last month I averaged 25 MPG with town driving and 75-85 MPH highway cruising. I agree that reliability would be questionable, as it its 19 years old. But, in my situation I've already replaced a ton of parts, so I don't think it'd be too bad.

With that said, I see ONE third gen on a regular basis that is DD that looks any good...a GTA. There are 2 other beat 91-92 RSs...and that's all I ever see.

whitedevilTA

iTrader: (8)

Your just jealous because you have a camaro and not a rare trans am!

In all honesty though, at a local HUGE car show which every monday averages about 600-900 cars, I see MAYBE 1 or 2 third gen trans ams. There are probably 6 or 7 camaros that are there but nada for trans ams.

FelixKrull

The point isn't to necessarily arrive at a real number but allow people to express their perspective from where they live. That's the entire "point" of message boards. I'm not sure what a "real topic" is to you but apparently this thread is pretty popular since so many people have contributed to it.

What are you, the message board Grench or something? Bah humbug to you too Ebeneezer.

Drew

iTrader: (58)

The thread is popular because there's no right or wrong answer... Anyone can reply and make a wild *** guess and it's just as accurate as anyone else's... It's a non-technical thread. Thirdgen.org is a technical website with no random chit chat board for a reason.

As a former moderator of this board, I can spot threads that belong and don't belong. This really doesn't have anything to do with history or restoration.

90vertiroc

Maybe TGO should start a new section: "Feel Good, Smoke Blowin, Chit Chat" lol

Manovox

In Malta there are 4 for sure all in mint condition!

The others Cannot find the pics, for sure there is another red one and a black one

okfoz

Actually here are the Cash For clunkers totals, year for year.
1984 20
1985 52
1986 73
1987 64
1988 53
1989 74
1990 33
1991 122
1992 113
TOT 604

Pontiac Firebirds
1984 8
1985 35
1986 49
1987 51
1988 1
1989 1
1990 1
1988 43
1989 49
1990 15
1991 55
1992 48
TOT 356

All in all its not a significant number

FelixKrull

Well, speaking as someone who thought cash for clunkers was an absolutely idiotic idea and the biggest waste in the history of the automobile, I think those are horrific numbers. 356 Firebirds headed to the scrap yard because 356 idiots wanted a shiny new Toyota or Honda. There's no way of telling how many of those Firebirds were Trans Ams but very likely a large percentage of them were.

That makes me sick to even think about it.